Siamo prossimi alla resa dei conti ? I rendimenti delle obbligazioni di Grecia , Irlanda e Portogallo hanno raggiunto ormai livelli record . Livelli che lasciano presagire una imminente ristrutturazione del debito .
Yields on government securities from Greece, Ireland andPortugal reached records amid speculation the heavily indebted nations won’t be able to avoid restructuring.
Ireland’s two-year yield reached a euro-era record 12.08 percent after the European Union said the nation’s debt burden surged the most in the currency area last year. Greek two-year yields have climbed almost 870 basis points this month, reaching 24.45 percent today as investors priced in losses, or so-called haircuts, they may incur in the event of a restructuring. Lars Feld, a member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s council of economic advisers, said Greece cannot avoid restructuring its debts.
“There’s more speculation about debt restructuring, which is reflected in the Greek curve,” said Christopher Rieger, head of fixed-income strategy at Frankfurt-based Commerzbank AG. “I don’t see where any support for Greek debt will be coming from. The prices are still quite a long way away from any reasonable haircut that people will expect if restructuring was announced.”
Greece’s two-year yields rose to a euro-era record of 24.45 percent and were at 24.24 percent as of 5:07 p.m. in London. The 4.6 percent security due 2013 fell 1.39, or 13.9 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,462) face amount, to 70.79. Ten-year yields reached a record 15.38 percent, up from 12.84 percent on March 31.
Portugal’s two-year note yields touched a euro-era record of 11.74 percent, up from 8.78 percent at the end of last month. The 10-year yield reached a record 9.61 percent today, compared with 8.41 percent on March 31.
“I don’t think that Greece will succeed in this consolidation strategy without any restructuring in the future,” Feld told Bloomberg Television in Frankfurt. “I think that Greece should restructure sooner than later.”
The yield difference, or spread, between Greek 10-year bonds and German securities of a similar maturity widened to 1,212 basis points, the most since Bloomberg began collecting the data in 1998. The spread has widened 264 basis points this month, even as the Greek government said it has no plans to renegotiate terms with creditors.
The spread between Portuguese and German 10-year bonds widened to as much as 636 basis points, the most since before the introduction of the euro.
The cost of insuring debt sold by Greece and Portugal rose to records, according to traders of credit-default swaps. Contracts on Greece jumped 13 basis points from April 21 to 1,345 basis points, signaling a 66 percent chance of default within five years, according to CMA. Portuguese swaps climbed six basis points to 666.