E’ quanto affermano i risultati di una simulazione della Merrill Lynch basata sulla analisi costi -benefici e sulla Teoria dei giochi ( Una seria teoria matematica sviluppata alla metà del novecento dal matematico Von Neumann e Oskar Morgenstern )
Italy and Ireland have more incentive to quit the euro than Greece, while Germany may have limited room to prevent departures from the currency union, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Using cost-benefit analysis and game theory, BofA Merrill Lynch foreign exchange strategists David Woo and Athanasios Vamvakidis concluded in a July 10 report that investors “may be underpricing the voluntary exit of one or more countries” from the bloc.
“Our analysis produces a few surprising results that even readers who may disagree with our conclusion are likely to find interesting,” the strategists wrote.
Italy, the euro area’s third-largest economy, would enjoy a higher chance of achieving an orderly exit than others and would stand to benefit from improvements in competitiveness, economic growth and balance sheets, they said.
Fonte : Bloomberg